Global average gross agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by 9% by 2035, according to a new report released today (Monday, June 29) by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The rise is expected to be driven by productivity gains and broadly stable agricultural prices.

However, the organisations have stated that this outlook remains vulnerable to market volatility caused by crises and conflicts.

The report estimates that if the frequency of shocks observed in recent years continues, there is a 25% probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than current levels.

Short-term risks are also significant, as recent energy price hikes and resulting reductions in fertiliser use are likely to affect agricultural production in 2027.

While high-income countries can more easily absorb these shocks, low-income countries face deteriorating food security, according to the report.

OECD FAO report

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 provides a global baseline reference for medium-term prospects for agricultural and fisheries markets at national, regional and global levels.

Under stable conditions, global agricultural and fisheries production is projected to expand by 13% over the next 10 years.

This would be driven mainly by productivity improvements and production intensification, with growth concentrated in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

However, the outlook also highlights the potential negative impacts of adverse shocks, even if they are temporary.

If the 33% average surge in energy prices observed in the first half of 2026 were to continue in the second half of the year, global grain production would decline by 0.9% in 2027 and more sharply, by 1.7%, in low-income countries.

Associated income losses and higher food prices would also force households in lower-income countries to reduce food consumption and shift towards cheaper food.

OECD secretary-general Mathias Cormann said: “Our agri-food systems are under pressure, and our farmers are on the front line of rising energy and fertiliser costs.

“Their resilience is our food security. Protecting it means better support to weather shocks, sustained investment in productivity, and open, well-functioning global markets."

FAO director-general QU Dongyu added: “To sustain productivity growth in agri-food systems, we must strengthen their resilience.

"Resilience is not about surviving the last shock; it is about preparing for the next one.

"By investing today in diversified trade corridors, regional reserves of critical agricultural inputs, resilient infrastructure, and a more diversified energy mix across agri-food systems that reduces dependence on oil, we can transform vulnerability into preparedness and ensure that temporary disruptions do not become food security crises.”

Productivity

Under stable conditions where productivity gains are expected to account for most production growth, some expansion in crop areas and livestock numbers will still be necessary, the report outlined.

As a result, direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are projected to increase by 6.5% over the next decade.

Livestock are expected to account for around 77% of this increase, reflecting growing animal herds, while synthetic fertilisers are estimated to contribute a further 23% through higher nitrous oxide emissions by 2035.

Projected productivity improvements are expected to exert downward pressure on real agricultural commodity prices.

While this may benefit consumers, it could create significant challenges for smallholder farmers, who are more vulnerable to market volatility and often have limited capacity to adopt the technologies needed to increase productivity.

According to the report, governments should support productivity growth while also improving farmers’ access to markets and providing locally tailored support programmes.

Consumers in lower middle-income countries are expected to further diversify their diets, particularly through higher consumption of livestock products as living standards rise.

Meanwhile low-income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, are projected to continue lagging behind other regions in food security and nutrition.

At the same time, excessive food consumption is expected to persist in wealthier countries.

Southeast Asia is projected to account for 39% of global consumption growth by 2035, driven by population growth and rising per capita demand.

Multilateral cooperation, open markets and rules-based international agricultural trade remain vital to strengthening global food security, supporting more diverse diets, and helping stabilise farm incomes, according to the OECD and FAO.

Main points from report

Global cereal (grain) production is projected to increase steadily, reaching a record 3.22 billion tonnes by 2035. This growth will be driven mainly by yield improvements of 0.9% annually, while the land area under cereal cultivation is expected to expand by just 0.1% annually, less than half the rate recorded during the previous decade;
By 2035, 40% of all cereals are projected to be consumed directly by humans, while 34% will be used for animal feed. Food use will continue to dominate wheat and rice utilisation, while maize is primarily a feed grain;
Global demand for biofuels is projected to grow by 1.4% annually over the next decade, driven mainly by Brazil, India and Indonesia. Growth in most high‑income countries is expected to slow, as policy incentives weaken and electric vehicle adoption accelerates;
Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a rising share of global agricultural production over the next decade, contributing about 16% of additional global agricultural production in value terms by 2035, up from 11% in the previous decade. However, much of the region will remain vulnerable to food insecurity and external shocks. The Asia Pacific region is projected to account for 58% of additional global agricultural output by 2035, with India alone contributing 26% of the increase. This growth will be driven in large part by a rapidly expanding dairy herd and rising milk yields;
In high-income countries, meat consumption growth is projected to slow markedly, with consumers increasingly shifting from beef toward poultry amid high prices, health concerns and environmental pressures;
Global fisheries and aquaculture production is projected to increase by 11% by 2035, with aquaculture continuing to drive growth and accounting for 56% of total production, up from 53% today.