The first World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report of the year was published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday evening (GMT), January 10, and there was little to get excited about.
Markets did show a bounce. Wheat prices found support from reports of increased feed and residual use in the US.
A report on US wheat planting, published on the same day, was also a factor. The area planted to winter wheat for 2020 is at 30.8 million acres. According to reports, that is the lowest winter wheat area in the US since 1910.
Wheat
The report shows that foreign production of wheat is down 1 million tonnes for the 2019/2020 market year. Government production data from Russia shows a drop of 1 million tonnes, while Australia’s government is reporting a drop of 500,000t in production due to drought.
However, production in the EU increased by 500,000t for the 2019/2020 market year.
The US outlook for wheat is for stable supplies, increased feed and residual use and lower stocks.
Foreign consumption of wheat is expected to increase fractionally, while global exports are raised 1.3 million tonnes. Exports from the EU and Ukraine are raised while exports from Russia have decreased according to the report.
Foreign ending stocks are lowered 1.2 million tonnes to 261.8 million tonnes.
Coarse grains
Global coarse grain production is expected to be slightly higher for the 2019/2020 season at 1.4 million tonnes.
In the 2019/2020 market year corn exports are expected to increase from Ukraine and the EU. Barley exports are also expected to increase from the EU, Argentina and Ukraine, while barley imports are raised for Turkey and China.
The outlook for corn in the US is for greater beginning stocks, slightly higher production, reduced food, seed and industrial use, larger feed and residual use, lower exports and smaller ending stocks.
Oilseeds
Oilseed production in the US is estimated at 107.4 million tonnes, a decrease of 200,000t from December. While canola, sunflower seed, peanut and cottonseed production levels are down, a larger soybean crop is helping to decrease the deficit – yields were up while the area was down.
Foreign oilseed production for 2019/2020 was estimated to be up by 0.2 million tonnes to 467.2 million tonnes. There was also a decline in palm kernel and palm oil production.
Vegetable oil production is also down and demand is increasing.
