Latest projections indicate that animal feed production levels in the UK have continued to fall year-on-year, according to latest figures released by the Agricultural and Horticultural Trade Board (AHDB).
This reflects a reduction in demand back to levels previously recorded in 2016.
The AHDB figures also highlight that the reduction in cereal usage within compound livestock rations is significant and that this trend is continuing to gather momentum.
According to the latest figures for 2022/23, total cereals demand for animal feed was estimated at 12.387Mt, down 162Kt from March’s estimate and 742Kt lower on the year.
The grain trading year commences on August 1, and ends on the following July 31.
In recent months, animal feed production has declined at a stronger rate than initially expected across all sectors.
Based on previous estimates, poultry feed demand has also seen large reductions which has been attributed to squeezed margins and the impact of avian influenza (bird flu).
Any recovery in poultry feed demand is now not expected until next season.
Feed
Meanwhile, cattle feed demand has also seen further reductions since the last estimates in March chiefly because of squeezed dairy margins.
In addition to this, ruminant feed demand is expected to drop as producers maximise grazing and forage instead.
The significant declines seen this season for pig feed demand are expected to continue for the remainder of the season, as clean pig numbers fall further. Cereal inclusions in animal feed rations remain down year-on-year.
However, with grain prices falling in recent months, the contrast to the relative price of protein meal has become less stark.
Total UK wheat availability for 2022/23 is estimated at 18.585Mt, up 25Kt from March’s estimate, and 1.187Mt higher year-on-year.
The increased availability from the last estimate in March is a result of wheat imports being revised up by 25Kt, to 1.200Mt. D
Wheat usage in UK animal feed is forecast at 6.807Mt, down 139Kt from the March estimate and 435Kt lower than 2021/22 levels.
The reduction seen from March’s estimate is due to further falls in feed demand across all livestock sectors, especially poultry.
There has also been slightly higher levels of barley and maize used in rations, at the expense of wheat, than previously expected. The decline on the year is due to lower total animal feed demand and cereal inclusions in rations.
The forecast for wheat fed on farm remains unchanged from the last March estimate, but outlines slightly lower year-on-year due to high-yielding grain sales from supported prices.
At 8.424Mt, total barley availability in the UK is 5Kt higher for 2022/23 than March’s estimate, and 316Kt higher year-on-year.
The change from previous estimates is a result of a slight increase in forecast imports.
Despite the lowest level of opening stocks in 10 years, a rise in production led to increased supply year-on-year.
