The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has confirmed that maize imports into the UK are heading for record levels.
Wheat imports are also on the up. Both trends are a direct consequence of disappointing UK grain harvests in both 2023 and 2024.
UK wheat production for 2024 is provisionally estimated at 11.1Mt, which is a decrease of 2.9Mt compared to 2023 harvest.
This figure is also 21% below the five-year average (2019–2023) but above 2020’s 9.7Mt crop, despite fears earlier in the year.
The extremely wet weather through last autumn and winter, and into spring, disrupted wheat planting, led to crop losses and badly impacted early crop development.
Maize
The latest UK trade data confirms maize imports at 515Kt for July and August, 28% greater than last year and 37% more than the five-year average. The sum of July and August imports are also the largest since at least 2000.
According to the AHDB, a slide in global maize prices is also an important factor.
Maize prices came under pressure as the second largest US maize crop on record developed in favourable conditions during the summer and is being harvested at an above average pace.
Prices from the US, usually the largest global exporter of maize, clearly show the global trend.
While US maize for export had begun the year at $205/t (January average), prices dropped below $200/t during the spring and summer months.
This was as anticipation of plentiful global supply developed in response to expectations of the second largest US maize harvest.
Imports
Looking ahead, lower domestic cereal production is likely to continue to encourage above average grain imports into the UK.
Whole and flaked maize for GB compound animal feed usage recorded a yearly rise of 23% for July and August.
This was the greatest rise across all other feed types suggesting that maize has already become more competitive in the feed ration and rations can often remain consistent through livestock life stages for monogastrics.
Meanwhile, global supplies of maize are projected to remain strong over the coming months.
This is a direct consequence of excellent harvest results now being projected for both Brazil and the United States.
Last week saw Brazil’s ministry of agriculture, (CONAB) projecting maize production for 2024/2025 at 119.7 Mt.
This is up 3% on the year; a 9% increase over the five-year average and the second largest maize crop on record (after 2022/2023).
