An export boost, a supply squeeze and robust consmer demand have helped positively offset increases in beef imports, according to a Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) report.
HCC senior market intellgience and research development officer, Elizabath Swancott, said: “We are seeing a complex blend of factors influencing the beef marketplace in the first five months of this year.
“Supply across Europe remains tight; beef imports have increased and UK production is up, meaning more product is available for export.
“In fact, GB beef exports lifted by almost 11%, from 41,900t in 2023 to 46,300t in 2024, with May exports up by 20% on year-earlier figures.”
Swancott said solid consumer positivity coupled with limitations on supply were likely to continue to help prices.
“Ireland is our largest beef trading partner. Some 30% of total exports went to Ireland but, of the 99,900t of beef imported, 77% came from Ireland, representing an 18% Irish product increase year-on-year for the first five months of 2024,” she said.
Elizabeth reported that GB steer deadweight price strengthened week on week throughout July but Irish beef prices saw a decline, and, as a result, the widening gap between GB and Irish steer deadweight prices made Irish beef more price competitive within the UK.
Beef demand
She said consumer data was showing strong beef demand and experts Kantar reported the volume of beef sold at retail was up 3% on the year (12 weeks until July 7).
“This data underlines how HCC’s marketing efforts continue to bear fruit both at home and overseas,” she said.
“For instance, the ‘Uniquely Welsh, Naturally Local’ domestic campaign saw awareness of Welsh Beef rise by 15% to 80% and propensity to purchase statistics increase by 21%.”
While Irish imports into GB are currently bolstered by increased demand from retail, this inward flow may not persist much longer because of impending tightening of supply, HCC said.
“Current Irish cattle population data suggests lower numbers of cattle of slaughter age towards the end of 2024 and into 2025,” Swancott said.
“This tightening of supply could have an influence on price and availability for export. In the longer term, Bord Bia forecast that Irish cattle slaughter could fall by 30-40,000 head (-2%) in 2024 for the year as a whole and may begin to influence the market towards the end of 2024 and into 2025.
“The Irish supply position, combined with the tighter EU and UK supply outlooks, and propitious consumer demand, would all suggest favourable undertones for cattle prices in the long term,” she said.
