The number of farms globally will most likely decline by the end of the 21st century, and the average farm size will double, according to a new study published today (Wednesday, May 17).
The study, from the New University of Colorado Boulder (CU Boulder), states that these findings could threaten biodiversity.
It states that farm numbers and size are important for “social and environmental outcomes”.
The study tracked the number and size of farms each year from the 1960s and includes projections up to 2100.
It used data from the United Nations (UN) Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) on agricultural area, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and rural population size of more than 180 countries.
This was to first reconstruct the evolution of farm numbers from 1969-2013 and then to project those numbers through to 2100.
Results
The results showed that the number of farms globally will “probably decline” from the current 616 million in 2020 to 272 million by 2100.
In some regions, such as Europe and North America, we will see a continued decline from recent history.
In other regions, including Asia; the Middle East; Oceania; Latin America; and the Caribbean, we will see a turning point from farm creation to the merging of smaller farms into larger ones.
The study identified a key reason for the results, stating that as a country’s economy grows, more people migrate to urban areas, leaving fewer people in rural areas to tend the land.
Small farms
“Smaller farms typically have more biodiversity and crop diversity, which makes them more resilient to pest outbreaks and climate shocks,” Zia Mehrabi, assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder said.
Mehrabi’s previous research shows the world’s smallest farms make up just 25% of the world’s agricultural land but harvest one-third of the world’s food.
“Currently, we have around 600 million farms feeding the world, and they’re carrying eight billion people on their shoulders.
“By the end of the century, we’ll likely have half the number of farmers feeding even more people. We really need to think about how we can have the education and support systems in place to support those farmers,” Mehrabi said.
Positively, the paper points out that consolidation in farming can lead to improved labour productivity and economic growth with a larger workforce in non-farm employment and improved management systems.
Mehrabi hopes his analysis “will lead to policies that ensure biodiversity conservation, maintain climate resilience, preserve indigenous knowledge and provide incentives to improve the rural economy in countries around the world”.
