According to RaboResearch’s latest animal protein report, EU chicken prices have risen 15% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2025, driven by ongoing strong demand and a tight supply.
Global poultry consumption is expected to grow by 2.5% to 3% this year, marking the second consecutive year of above average market growth, with many regions reporting boosted profit margins, the report revealed.
Senior analyst of animal protein with RaboResearch, Nan-Dirk Mulder commented:
“Almost all regions currently enjoy profitable market conditions, with the notable exception of China, which faces weaker economic conditions, waning consumer confidence, and an oversupplied domestic meat market after years of rapid expansion.”
Total chicken consumption in Europe in 2024 increased 5%, which the report found was aided by chicken’s strong price position compared to other proteins, like beef and pork, especially during times of economic uncertainty and heightened consumer price consciousness.
Total production in the EU also increased more than 5% in 2024 compared to 2023, while UK production growth was slower at 2.4%.
The report revealed that most UK retailers are transitioning to 20% lower density at broiler farms which will further impact supply.
Bird flu
The renewed growth of chicken production in France is due to recovery following bird fu outbreaks and the success of its vaccination programme, RaboResearch indicated.
Ongoing implementation of animal welfare-related farming concepts in north-west Europe has led to lower production growth in those markets, with an ongoing shift in production demonstrated from north-west Europe to the east and south of Europe, the report outlined.
Despite high domestic prices in Europe, chicken export volumes have grown by 9% in 2024, driven by strong demand from Vietnam, Uzbekistan and the reopening of the Philippines after bird-flu-related export restrictions were lifted, according to RaboResearch.
European chicken exports to the UK were demonstrated to have grown by 4%, mainly due to an increase in supply from Poland, in response to a tight domestic supply in the UK, the report revealed.
Chicken imports into the EU were found to be down by 2% in 2024, but Rabobank predicts this to grow by 3% to 4% in 2025.
RaboResearch
RaboResearch has cited the expiration of Ukraine’s voluntary export restriction in May 2025 as a market “wild card” factor, stating that the EU market will react negatively if Ukraine resumes exporting unlimited volumes of chicken.
Bird flu was cited as a significant challenge for the global poultry industry and one of its biggest operational concerns.
Additionally, the supply of parent stock remains tight, and hatching egg prices are still high, restricting growth, which is increasing the pressure to implement a vaccination programme.
“Rising egg prices are now driving renewed interest in vaccination as a tool to combat avian flu threats. The poultry industry has debated the use of vaccines in recent years, and more countries are adopting vaccination as a tool to reduce the risk of avian influenza spreading,” the report outlined.
“In general, there is more support among egg producers than broiler producers.
“Concerns about trade impacts and mixed results in controlling the spread of disease have been key factors for several countries not adopting vaccination as a tool,” Mulder said.
According to RaboResearch, France has experienced significantly fewer cases of bird flu since adopting vaccination, which has resulted in domestic supply having “fully recovered”.
Similarly, several countries in Asia and Latin America, where usually there is no compensation for farmers affected by avian influenza and export dependence is low, have introduced bird flu vaccines.
