The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is projecting positive grain yields for most parts of Europe in 2025.
This assertion is based on the figures contained within the latest European Union Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) report.
The report indicates that winter crops are in good condition across most of the EU and neighbouring countries.
Grain
Meanwhile, current conditions are extremely favourable where the sowing of spring cereals in 2025 is concerned.
However, regions in Romania and Bulgaria, plus more widely in eastern Ukraine, Morocco, and western Algeria are facing severe crop damage.
According to AHDB, parts of central and south-eastern Europe are experiencing a lack of rainfall, which is affecting winter crop growth and could delay spring sowing.
Dry conditions are fairly widespread in Romania and Bulgaria, while Hungary is seeing slower winter crop development due to the rain shortage.
In eastern Poland dry conditions could become an issue when winter crops start growing again and spring barley sowing starts.
The MARS report also points out that Germany had its driest February 1 to March 15 on record. Due to this, rapeseed and winter cereals now need more water to reach their full potential.
On the flip side, southern and western Europe have seen too much rain, leading to waterlogging.
The report noted that ongoing heavy rains in parts of Spain, Portugal and Italy are likely to disrupt fieldwork.
In Northern France, the above-average rainfall earlier this year took its toll on the root systems, and even though conditions were drier in early March, the situation has not been fully remedied yet.
The long-range weather forecast predicts warmer-than-average conditions from April to June.
While this could help crops in wet areas like France and Spain, it may increase moisture losses in the south east.
Supply
The EU plays a crucial role in global cereal supply, and with the positive outlook for crop production in the MARS report, the prospect of a boost in global grain supply for 2025/2026 has increased.
The International Grains Council (IGC) is already forecasting an increase of 17.2Mt in EU total grain production to 275Mt in 2025.
This could put downward pressure on both global and domestic cereal prices.
However, it is still early in the season and the impact of these weather developments on crop production need to be closely monitored.
If conditions remain challenging, crops in central and south-eastern Europe could face reduced yields in the coming months.
