The first official UK supply and demand estimates for UK cereals, covering the 2024/2025 season, have been published.
Compiled by the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), the figures cover wheat, barley, oats and maize.
Following a difficult growing year, it’s perhaps not surprising that the impact of a poor harvest shows some abnormalities from an average balance sheet. So, what are the key changes?
Current production estimates for harvest 24 suggest that total cereals production in the UK fell 11% year-on-year. This is driven by a 21% decline in the wheat crop, though we did see larger barley and oat crops.
Heavier wheat and maize opening stocks were not enough to offset this overall drop in cereals production, and as a result, this year, the UK will rely on a greater volume of imported grain than last season and the previous five-year average.
Full-season wheat imports are estimated to reach 2.75Mt, up 13% on the year. While maize imports in 2024/2025 are forecast down slightly on the year, with greater opening stocks, the volume of imported maize used for domestic consumption is due to rise on year earlier levels too.
In 2024/2025, total domestic consumption of cereals is pegged at 24.18Mt, down 2% on the year, but relatively in line with the five-year average.
Much of this decline comes from a downturn in demand for grain being used for animal feed production.
Supply and demand
However, the AHDB is anticipating a second year of recovery in feed production by compounders and integrated poultry units (IPUs).
However, due to reduced availability of domestic grain, and competitively priced maize imports, the decline in the amount fed on farm is expected to outweigh that increase.
Demand from the human and industrial sectors is also forecast to fall year-on-year.
This decline is driven largely by a fall in demand from the bioethanol industry, with neither UK plant expected to run at full capacity as margins come under pressure.
Overall, the drop in supply of total cereals for harvest 2024 outweighs the decline in domestic consumption.
As such, a tighter balance of UK cereals throughout the 2024/2025 season is expected at 5.39Mt, down 14% on the year.
When taking into account an operating stock requirement, the amount therefore available for either export or free stock, is estimated well below the five-year average, at 3.04Mt.
