Irish agriculture can look forward to a very bright future, one that will see sustainable farm gate prices being maintained as a reality.
This was the key take-home message emanating from the recent Northern Ireland Food and Drink Association (NIFDA) annual conference.
Food prices in the UK are likely to increase by at least 5% per year over the coming years. And while this is happening, the UK’s population is set to increase by 1.5% into the future.
A combination of better prices and more mouths to feed should add up to a good news story for Irish agriculture, as Irish farmers are key suppliers of food and drink to the UK market.
This, of course is wholly dependent on UK retailers playing fair and delivering realistic returns back down the farming and food supply chain.
Mind you, they seem to be doing that at the moment – dairy, beef and lamb farm gate returns are currently sitting at record levels. Moreover, there is no sign of this trend being reversed in the near future.
Animal disease
In essence, the world is short of food. And, yes, bad weather has been a contributory factor in this unfolding situation, up to a point.
However, a more potent factor is now coming centre-stage – animal disease.
Bird flu, or avian influenza, has been an issue for the poultry sector on the island of Ireland over recent weeks. But in truth, this is just a bump in the road compared to what is happening in both the US and mainland Europe.
For instance, in recent months, bird flu has jumped the species barrier and is now impacting on the dairy sectors of California and Texas.
My understanding of this is that the consequence of this has been an off-the-chart decline in cows’ fertility in both states. So it will not come as a surprise to learn that milk volumes destined for processing have fallen accordingly.
Meanwhile, bluetongue is having a similar effect on the dairy sectors of France and Belgium.
Global shortages of any food commodity have one end-point; a rise in prices in international markets. Supply and demand drive market sentiment – it is as straightforward as that.
Irish agriculture
All of this is good news for the farming and food sectors in Ireland, provided diseases like bird flu and bluetongue can be kept at bay.
Thankfully, the threat of bird flu in this part of the world is very seasonal in nature. It tends to be carried, for the most part, by migrating birds that winter with us.
Moreover, Irish poultry producers are experts in their field, and are managing to secure the highest possible standards of biosecurity.
Bluetongue, on the other hand, represents a different challenge altogether. It has already gained a foothold in mainland Europe and parts of the UK.
Yes, the disease is carried by midges. But, in reality, the need for Irish agriculture to maintain zero tolerance where animal imports are concerned is critically important.
