A new feasibility study published in the science journal, Nature, predicts cow calving time 40 plus hours in advance of the birth through the analysis of heart rate data.
In farming, the uncertainty surrounding the exact timing of calving can take both a financial and health toll on farmers, and an advancement in the accuracy of calving predictions could help mitigate these costs and the adverse
The researchers monitored and analysed the heart rates of eight pregnant Holstein cows in the lead up to their due dates using a specific monitoring device.
The data was subsequently collated and examined under three distinct components, where it was discovered that the heart rate trend exhibited a sharp decline more than 40 hours before calving occurred.
Calving time predictions
The feasibility study used common financial technical indicators traditionally deployed by financial market traders and investors to identify “turning points” of asset prices in trading markets to ascertain the same watershed mark in calving times on the basis of heart rate data.
This study remains a feasibility study because of the limited observations, but it demonstrates that these indicators can effectively capture the trend’s “turning point” in real time, offering a promising approach for enhanced calving prediction in the future.
While calving dates can be predicted on the basis of the 280-day gestation period of a cow, the exact date often falls outside this time frame by a few days due to genetic and physiological factors.
Farmers often make approximate estimations of calving times based on certain physical signs or indicators exhibited by the pregnant cow, but achieving more exact predications predicated on scientific means could save them considerable time, money and worry, the study purports.
Previous studies observed vaginal temperatures and rumination times to pinpoint calving times.
However, of these physiological changes and additional studies occur within 24 hours of calving and do not always result in accurate predictions, therefore, there is a need for an earlier and more exact prediction system according to the study, which this study proposes.
The study also stipulates that the same prediction tools could be adapted and applied for the births of other mammals such as piglets, foals and lambs.
The device should be fitted onto the animal two weeks prior to the calving date estimated by the time of siring.
The study also promotes the use of non contact heart rate monitoring using infrared technology and RGB video cameras as other potential avenues of recording heart data.
The study requires further research using a larger cohort of participating cows in order to validate the efficiency of the predictions means outlines but the researchers are adamant that it can be used help alleviate the waiting costs imposed during the period before calving.
