Conditions in the lamb market remain unsteady as external pressures impact on consumer demand, export trends and lamb supply according to Hybu Cig Cymru – Meat Promotion Wales (HCC).
HCC’s Data Analyst Glesni Phillips said: “The lamb sector has been under pressure in 2022 due to rising farm input costs, global trade being impacted on by the war in Ukraine, and inflationary pressures on red meat consumers.
“This has influenced liveweight prices at auction markets, which have fluctuated in recent weeks while current throughput at abattoirs is below what we would expect for this time of year, suggesting a short term increase in supply as the year end approaches,” said Glesni.
“However, average lamb liveweight prices remain firm when compared to historical averages as export volumes recover and demand for lamb on the global market does remain strong.
“Despite recent fluctuations, the liveweight average has remained above levels seen in 2020, and also above the longer-term five-year average, for the entirety of 2022,” she reported.
Sales of lamb at retail are lower than the previous three years as the covid “cook-at-home” factor dissipated and the cost-of-living crisis hit shoppers. Demand for lamb on the domestic market has been weaker as a result.
Glesni said that continued inflation means that the cost of feeding and finishing stock on farm remains high.
“Looking ahead, we believe inflationary pressures will continue to have a direct impact on the supply of lamb onto the market, along with demand from consumers.
“Some producers may continue to offload animals to save on expenditure, and lighter carcases may come forward due to limited food availability and high feed costs.”
She confirmed that the current tight supply contributed to an eleven per cent fall in sheep meat production on the year.
Prime lamb numbers for September stood at 961,700 head – down 6% on August, and a further 9% fall on the corresponding period last year.
Although lamb kill numbers for the nine-month period are 3% higher than 2021, they are in fact some 8% behind the longer-term average for the corresponding period.
“Static production volumes during August and reduced shipments to the EU likely influenced a dip in exports of fresh and frozen sheep meat – some 5,800t, a 7% decline on the year.
“However, volumes of sheep meat exported during the eight-month period are up 14% on the year as trade recovers following Brexit and the Covid pandemic, and there has been a greater volume of product available for export.”
