According to the John Nix Farm Management Pocketbook, there has seldom been such a wide variation in prospects for UK farm businesses.
The 2023 edition of this invaluable source of knowledge for British farmers, has just been launched.
The annual publication, produced by the Andersons Centre has been an acknowledged benchmark for British farming, going back over many years.
Graham Redman, author of the pocketbook, notes that dairy and tillage farms may do very well from the higher milk and grain prices, whilst the grazing and intensive livestock sectors on balance stand to lose out.
“This is an opportunity for some and a big concern for other farmers,” he said.
“The range in budgeted margins is vast, depending on farm structure, enterprises and performance.”
“Planning for the year and thinking about capturing the opportunities whilst mitigating the risks is vital in these particularly uncertain times.”
John Nix Pocketbook advice
Redman strongly recommends farmers carefully putting budgets together and working out what prices their business systems can operate at.
Lord Don Curry, a former chairman of the National Farmers Union (NFU) Mutual Insurance Society Ltd., wrote the foreword to the new edition of the pocketbook.
He points out that the amount of change in this industry is currently without parallel. Curry cites the fundamental transformation in agricultural policy, especially in England, towards the provision of public goods, which is met with trepidation in some sectors, especially hill farming.
He also notes the slow burn changes from the emerging post-Brexit trade deals that may undercut domestic standards.
Also referenced by Lord Curry is the war in Ukraine, with its dramatic impact on energy prices and blockade of ports, affecting grain and fertiliser markets unrecognisably. This issue is specifically referenced in the new pocketbook.
On a positive note, Lord Curry points out that the recent UK government food strategy places increasing importance on home-produced food.
A rise in production in some sectors might be hampered by labour shortages, but he identifies recent research from the Institute for Agriculture and Horticulture, which suggests improved career advice might help students consider a career in farming and food.
Winners and losers for 2023
The new book provides farm management guidance and budgeting figures for 2023.
Contained within it are myriad whole-farm costings, showing the profit and loss of key farm systems.
It includes both figures from the average and the better performers. They demonstrate the wide variations in budgeted profitability in 2023 between sectors and farmer performances.
“To survive, let alone thrive, managers must be at the top of their game in the years ahead.
“Beef and sheep farms show a calculated loss. But the cash position is positive before imputed rent and unpaid labour.
“There are opportunities for famers, but many may find it hard to grow their profit in the coming year,” Redman stated.
The new pocketbook book is updated for 2023 with over 100 enterprises for the year ahead, overheads, capital and other farming costs.
It also gives a full guide to the new agricultural policies throughout all the UK, as well as interpreting trade patterns and the current agricultural economics.
Specifically included are new sections on: Carbon markets; Regenerative farming; agroforestry; undersown barley; diversifications; and for the first time, farm health and safety statistics.
More details have been included such as for whole crop forage, straw in gross margins and typical stocking rate capacities for forage crops.
