UK beef production is expected to decrease by 5% in 2025 which will likely boost Irish beef exports to the market, according to the Coventry headquartered Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).
Its latest research suggests that the reduction in UK beef production – expected to fall 5% year-on-year to 885,000 tonnes – follows “sustained reductions” in cattle numbers.
“Several factors have contributed to reducing livestock numbers, including underlying business profitability, declining direct payments, and strong beef prices,” AHDB also outlined.
Last year UK beef production increased by nearly 4% to 934,000 tonnes, but 2025 is expected to see a “shift in supply dynamic” the board has said.
According to AHDB prime cattle availability is forecast to decline, with a 6% drop in prime cattle slaughter to 1.99 million head.
Reductions in cattle supply are also expected to continue into 2026, following trends in calf registrations in previous years.
Beef sector
Hannah Clarke, AHDB lead analyst, red meat, believes the UK beef sector is entering 2025 in a “period of significant supply constraint”.
This is just one of the factors that will play into supporting farmgate cattle prices as reduced supply both domestically and globally is likely to drive competition for beef cattle.
“However, the sensitivity of consumers to prices and the cuts they choose to purchase will play a pivotal role in determining overall carcase values,” Clarke warned.
AHDB has forecast that in the retail sector, everyday cuts like mince are expected to see strong performance, it also expects that consumer concerns about “ultra-processed foods” are likely to support demand for fresh, primary beef cuts over processed offerings.
Imports
Meanwhile UK beef imports are expected to rise by 12% to “compensate” for reduced domestic production.
AHDB outlined that imports from Ireland – which it said is the UK’s largest supplier – are likely to see the “most significant increase”, while exports, having experienced strong growth in 2024, are forecast to fall by 7% in 2025, “pressured by supply constraints”.
Clarke believes that the UK supply chain will need to focus on “navigating the challenges of supply constraints while maintaining product quality”.
“Communication around the nutritional benefits of beef, as well as continued emphasis on sustainability and animal welfare, will help to secure long-term consumer trust and demand for beef.
As the industry heads through 2025, the UK beef sector will need to stay agile in responding to market shifts, with a focus on driving efficiencies and engaging consumers through compelling messaging and promotions,” she added.
