The latest agri-market outlook from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has concluded that the inflation of inputs is a threat to the long-term resilience of the agriculture industry.
Other threats to the resilience of agriculture were identified as market stresses and policy uncertainty.
The agri-market outlook also revealed that markets, food businesses and consumers are still dealing with challenges presented by inflation, the energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and the shortage of labour.
AHDB said farmers businesses and consumers are continuing to feel the pressure and that an ongoing “price-sensitive consumer market” has the potential to significantly impact trends in food consumption in 2024 and beyond.
AHDB head of economics and analysis, Sarah Baker, said: “Farmers saw input costs rise significantly during 2023, putting pressure on farm business margins with the cost of fertiliser being a prime example.
“While some input costs are falling, they remain above pre-inflation levels and are likely to remain risky due to linkage to energy markets and instability around the world.
“Coupled with market stresses and policy uncertainty around burgeoning environment schemes and the budgets that underpin them, long term resilience will be put under pressure.”
Baker said the current level of uncertainty is on multiple fronts for markets, businesses and consumers.
“Without long term certainty and the recovery of consumer confidence, challenges are likely to persist for the industry in 2024.”
Beef
AHDB’s agri-market outlook features market outlooks for each of its levy-paying sectors: beef and lamb, dairy, pork and cereals and oilseeds.
The outlook reported that cattle numbers remain “finely balanced” in 2024 with concern over the long-term direction of the national suckler beef herd.
This is driven by production economics, access to land and agricultural policy, AHDB said.
There is some optimism for some discrete volume demand increases but it will be sensitive to consumer finances and competition from other proteins, the board said.
Lamb
There were slight declines in domestic production, from limited expansion in the lamb crop, and contraction in the breeding flock due to general industry uncertainty.
“Pressure from imports with large price disparity with the Southern Hemisphere and increased tariff free access with Australia,” AHDB said.
“Exports will decline in line with lower domestic production, as the EU remains our key destination.”
Falling domestic demand is continuing to cause concern as consumers are impacted by the cost of living.
However, key seasonal events such as Easter and Eid, could result in improvements, AHDB said.
Pork
There is no recovery in the herd or production expected due to competition from chicken causing demand challenges, AHDB said.
There was a small uplift in trade with potential opportunities in United States and Mexico alongside competitive EU imports.
AHDB said the fall in feed prices will bring some relief, depending on how much decline in grain prices is seen in finished feed costs.
Escalating straw costs present a risk through 2024, according to the board.
Dairy
AHDB said there are green shoots of recovery with commodity prices starting to build, but the approaching spring flush will drive market direction.
“Demand continues to be muted, a little growth coming back into retail, but China continues to disappoint in import demand.
“Falling fertiliser and feed costs will help, but higher straw costs should be expected through 2024.”
Cereals and Oilseeds
AHDB said a “massively challenging” autumn and winter has disrupted crop areas for harvest 2024, with markets anticipating that the UK will need to be a net importer of wheat.
AHDB will be updating estimates of crop areas for 2024 in mid-March.
While crop prices have returned to pre-inflationary levels, fertiliser costs remain above the ‘normal’ levels.
Recent falls in commodity prices are a cause for concern for profitability and cash flow, AHDB said, and lower fertiliser prices have helped, but they remain above pre-inflationary levels.
