Following a smaller cereal harvest in 2024, there is a greater reliance on imported grain in the 2024/25 marketing year, according to research by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).
The UK’s cereal harvest in 2024 declined notably, with wheat production down by 20% compared to the previous year.
As a result of this smaller harvest, the UK has increased its reliance on imported grains, particularly higher protein milling quality grain.
Wheat imports are forecast to rise to 2.75 million tonnes in 2024/25, a 13% increase from 2023/24.
The AHDB said that some recovery is expected in 2025, but due to weather challenges it is not expected to rebound back to average levels.
Combining the AHDB Early Bird Survey-projected UK wheat area, with an average yield over the last five years (2020–2024), the UK crop would reach 12.5 megatonnes (MT) in 2025.
While this would be up by 12% on levels from the year before, the ADHB said that it is still well below the five-year average of 13.9MT.
In 2024, the production of oilseed rape fell by 32% to 824kt driven by a sharp reduction in planted area and disappointing yields.
The early bird survey also pegged the UK oilseed rape area at 244 kilohectares (kha) for harvest in 2025, the smallest in 42 years.
As a result, the UK will be more reliant on imports to meet domestic demand for rapeseed. In the 2024/25 marketing year, imports are forecast to reach 875kt , up from 743kt the previous year.
The UK grain and oilseed markets are likely to remain volatile in 2025, with prices driven by fluctuating supply and demand dynamics both domestically and globally.
While the short-term outlook for rapeseed prices is upward, driven by limited supply and lower palm oil production, broader market forces such as soybean exports from Brazil could put downward pressure on longer-term price movements the AHDB stated.
Similarly, cereal prices could face support from limited global supply in the short term. However, increased maize supplies from South America and the US could weigh on prices longer term, as well as concern over slowing economies of key importers.
Olivia Bonser, AHDB senior market analyst (cereals & oilseeds) said: “2024 was a challenging year for UK cereal and oilseed producers, with a marked decline in both wheat and oilseed rape production.
“While there are signs of potential recovery in 2025, particularly for wheat, the decline in domestic production in 2024, coupled with competitive import prices, is creating a challenging environment for farmers.”
