A greater proportion of ewe lambs are expected to be slaughtered rather than being kept for further breeding next season in the United Kingdom (UK).
This is according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), which has updated its predictions for 2024.
The female breeding flock has fallen from a previous AHDB estimate, as the number of ewe replacements coming through has reduced.
Breeding flock
The size of the female breeding flock in the UK in December 2023 totalled 13.8 million head.
This is a decline of 4.3% (615,000 head) from the same time in 2022 and represents the lowest breeding flock since current records began in 1996.
The breeding flock consists of ewes intended for further breeding and slaughter, and ewes intended for first time breeding (ewe lambs).
Using this data, AHDB is predicting that the number of ewe replacements has fallen for the 2023/24 year (December-December).
This suggests a greater proportion of these ewe lambs will be slaughtered in the old season lamb (OSL) crop (from January-May 2024), as opposed to kept for breeding, the AHDB has determined.
“This could be due to the record-high lamb prices currently seen in the first four months of 2024,” AHDB analyst Isabelle Shohet said.
New crop of lambs
The predicted size of the lamb crop for the 2024/25 season (March – March), now sits at 15.9 million head.
This is a decline of 185,000 head from the previous season, representing a fall of 1.2%.
A smaller than expected female breeding flock at December 1, 2023, combined with challenging scanning rates, are expected to contribute to this decline in the lamb crop.
However, Shohet said disease risks such as Schmallenberg and Bluetongue virus (BTV) have not been factored into lamb crop calculations, due to current levels of uncertainty.
Clean sheep slaughter
The revised estimated carryover for 2024 of old season lambs, is now 4.1m head from January – May.
This is a decline of 185,000 head (-4.3%) from 2023, following an increased proportion of ewe lambs potentially intended for first time breeding coming forward in the first five months.
The predicted total number of new season lambs to be slaughtered in the first six months of the year has fallen from the previous AHDB estimate, to around 1.57 million head, a decline of 82,000 head from the same time in 2023.
Slaughter in the second half of the year (July – December), assuming a typical slaughter pattern alongside the forecasted lamb crop, is predicted to be 6.4 million head.
This is growth of just under 1% (52,000 head) from the same period in 2023.
Total sheep meat production for 2024 is set to fall by 1.4% across the year from 2023, to 282,000t.
In estimating this, the AHDB is “assuming that wet weather conditions that have been persistent throughout the last quarter of 2023 and into 2024, have impacted on lamb carcase weights”.
