The most recent update from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has confirmed another drop in winter wheat crop ratings.
However, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), the figure is marginal with 49% of winter wheat currently rated in ‘good-to-excellent’ condition; down 1% from the previous week.
However, it should be noted that this figure remains the highest for the time of year since 2020.
In 2023, winter wheat condition scores for the same week were 28% good-to-excellent, 21% lower than the current rating. Additionally, 19% of last year’s crop was rated very poor, compared to just 5% this year.
Reports of drought have expanded across the US winter wheat belt, with growing worries regarding its impact on crop condition and yield.
The USDA reported last week that 30% of US winter wheat was located within areas currently with some degree of drought as of April 23. This is up from 24% in the previous week and 18% two weeks previously.
The US drought monitor showed that in the top producing state, Kansas, 65% of the state was going through a period of drought, albeit moderate. This was up from 53% the week prior.
Winter wheat harvest
The winter wheat harvest is expected to begin next month in the southern states of the US.
Some rain is forecast over the next week, however the exact level remains to be seen. Soil moisture levels and temperature will be crucial as more winter wheat crops approach their reproductive stages.
At the present time, 30% of winter wheat in the US has ears fully emerged, up from 17% last week and the 9% above the average for 2019-2023.
The exact scale of impact that current weather conditions are having in key wheat-producing countries is currently unknown.
The International Grains Council (IGC) expects a global surplus of grains in 2024/2025, though the margin for error is small and wheat stocks are low.
It will be important to continue to watch weather conditions in key producers in the weeks ahead.
Two weeks ago, the IGC cut 2023/2024 global grain production by 3.5Mt due to the impact of rising disease and drought stress in parts of the southern hemisphere on maize output.
Meanwhile, stronger wheat demand in India is the main factor pushing up the global grain demand estimate.
The changes mean a sharper fall in 2023/2024 carry-out stocks than forecast in March, which would reduce the ‘cushion’ to any production issues in 2024/2025.
In total, global grain stocks at the end of 2023/2024 are projected 8.4Mt lower than the IGC’s March report, with a 3.6Mt fall for wheat and a 4.8Mt fall for maize.
