The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has forecast that geopolitical tensions will lead to limited growth in breeding herd numbers and will continue to put pressure on export markets.
UK pork production is anticipated to remain stable in 2025, with clean pig slaughter volumes reaching approximately 10.32 million head, a slight decrease compared to 2024, according to the AHDB.
However, a thriving foodservice sector, and evolving consumer demand for convenient, affordable cuts of pork provide opportunities for the industry to navigate challenges in the year ahead.
AHDB‘s senior livestock analyst, Freya Shuttleworth said: “While the pork market faces challenges such as fluctuating export demand and rising geopolitical uncertainties, we are seeing signs of resilience.
“The continued growth of the foodservice sector and increasing consumer interest in value-driven cuts of pork offer potential areas for optimism. The industry’s focus must remain on meeting the evolving needs of consumers while maintaining high standards of welfare and sustainability,” she added.
AHDB
Average carcass weights are expected to remain at around 90kg, in line with performance from previous years, according to the AHDB.
The size of the UK breeding herd is forecast to rise by 1% to 330,000 head by June 2025, but long-term growth remains limited, with the herd expected to return to 2023 levels by 2027.
The outlook for trade in 2025 is mixed, with geopolitical tensions and market volatility continuing to affect UK exports.
The EU is still the UK’s most significant trading partner, with over 99% of UK pig meat imports and over 42% of exports coming from the region. However, demand from the EU is expected to decrease as EU consumption weakens.
The AHDB believes that retail demand for pig meat is likely to remain under pressure in 2025 due to economic challenges and fluctuating consumer perceptions around the health credentials of pork.
However, the continued growth of the foodservice sector, particularly in dining out and on-the-go meal occasions, presents a valuable opportunity.
AHDB’s retail and consumer insight manager, Vanessa Adamson said: “As we continue to face economic pressures, promoting the nutritional benefits and versatility of pork will be key in encouraging consumers to incorporate more pork into their meals.
“With increased interest in affordable meal options and a growing foodservice sector, there are significant opportunities to expand pork consumption, particularly through convenient products like sausages, burgers, and pre-prepared cuts.”
To enhance the outlook for pork consumption in 2025, industry players are urged to focus on communicating the health benefits of pork, such as its rich vitamin and protein content.
Additionally, promoting versatile recipes, batch cooking ideas, and affordable meal options will help capture consumers’ interest.
