The future stability of the Welsh beef industry could be in jeopardy after new half-yearly data reveals a “serious shrinkage” in cattle supply, Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales has said (HCC).
There were 213,200 calf birth registrations in Wales during the first six months of 2024, a decrease of over 10,000 calves year-on-year and a fall of 4% compared to January – June 2023.
This is according to newly released figures from British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS).
HCC’s intelligence, analysis and business insight executive, Glesni Phillips, said this marks the lowest number of half-year calf registrations recorded in Wales in several years, and is well below the peak of nearly 230,000 head in 2021.
“This decline also mirrors trends across the rest of Britain, with English registrations also 4% down and Scottish 2% down,” she said.
“As cattle numbers in key age brackets fall, there are serious concerns around the critical mass needed to promote and maintain industry stability, which presents an overall concerning outlook for beef production.”
Beef production
The BCMS data reveals the number of calves that could be available for beef production has fallen to 173,600 head, its lowest level in several years.
“Although some of the beef females will be retained as suckler replacements in the herd, this figure is 4% lower- that’s 7,400 head- than the number available during the first half of 2023 and it’s likely to have significant implications for the future of beef supply in Wales,” Phillips said.
Short-term cattle supply across Great Britain is expected to remain relatively stable, with the number of cattle aged 12-30 months down just 0.3% year-on-year.
However, looking ahead, the number of cattle in the 0–12-month age bracket is significantly lower, down by 4%, suggesting that future beef supply across Great Britain could be constrained, HCC said.
Female dairy calf registrations in Wales between January and June decreased by 6% compared to the same period in 2023.
Male dairy calf numbers were down by 14%, resulting in an overall decline of 8%, or nearly 5,100 head in the number of dairy calf registrations.
Beef calf registrations were down 3% -or 4,600 head- to nearly 158,100 head in this half-year period, some 2% lower than 2022 and the lowest figure since 2019.
“Both beef female and male calf registrations saw similar year-on-year declines of 3%, while the gender distribution remained relatively stable,” Phillips said.
“Beef registrations made up 74% of total calf registrations in Wales, up from 70% in 2021.
“This shift in the balance between dairy and beef within the Welsh herd could change the future supply of beef if this trend continues.”
