The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has confirmed an easing in UK and International feed wheat prices.
Driving this trend is a forecasted uplift in global grain supplies over the coming months.
Specifically, the prospect of improving weather in the US has been one of the largest bearish factors on markets this week.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported that 47% of US winter wheat was in good or excellent condition as of April 13, down from 48% a week earlier, with around 32% of the winter wheat area being impacted by drought earlier in the month.
However, weather forecasts are predicting beneficial rains in the US wheat belt next week. These projections have weighed down on global wheat markets.
Beneficial rains are also forecast in key European cropping regions France and Germany.
As well as the prospects of improving US conditions, fluctuations in currency following US President Donald Trump’s tariffs is also having its impact on markets.
UK feed wheat future losses were double those registered in the US earlier this week. This was partly due to sterling strengthening against the US dollar.
According to AHDB analysts, volatility in currency is likely to remain as the US tariff situation continues to unfold.
European wheat markets have also felt the pressure this week from competitive Russian exports. Improved weather in Russia alleviated some concerns around new crop, pushing export wheat prices lower.
However, the actual condition of the Russian crop remains a key watch point, given the prolonged period of drought some key growing regions have experienced.
On the supply side, France’s farm ministry estimates the 2025 soft wheat area at 4.63Mha, up 10% from 2024 and slightly above the five-year average.           Â
The news of a bumper wheat crop from Argentina has also added pressure to markets this week. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is projecting that Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest will hit 20.5Mt, which would be a 10% increase from last year.
This boost is due to favourable weather and lower production costs.
While US tariffs are still in the picture, especially because of its impact on currency and trade flows, as always at this time of year, market attention is on weather and crop conditions.
US and Russian crop conditions remain a key watch point for markets and price movements. If the much anticipated rains do not come to the US, or do not provide adequate moisture, it could well see some support to markets.
