August has been a “month of two halves” for the EU average pig prices, pork industry analysts have said.
At the start of the month, prices were still drifting downwards – falling to €143.36/100kg in the first week – according to data reported to the European Commission.
However, by August 19, prices had risen by over €6, to €149.77/100kg.
It means the drop compared to 2017 prices has been narrowing and currently stands at around €21/100kg.
Individual markets
“Looking at individual member states, pig prices in Germany have increased strongly, reaching €156.58/100kg in the most recent week,” Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) analyst Rebecca Oborne said.
“This is €9.36 above the four weeks previously, with all the increase again coming within the past fortnight. Belgium, Poland, the Netherlands and Austria have also recorded a similar pattern of increase.
“In Denmark, prices have only received a modest boost compared to that recorded in Germany, moving up by just €1.84 over the past 4 weeks, to €129.96/100kg.
“Prices in Spain, also recorded little change during the period, up just €0.96 at €153.12/100kg, and French prices have similarly only risen slightly.”
Tightening supplies?
Oborne explained: “The price rises in continental Europe are reportedly due to tight supplies at slaughter.
While the German herd has been declining, previous census results from other member states indicate overall there should be plenty of pigs on units. As such, it is perhaps uncertain how long the upward momentum can be maintained.
“The ongoing African Swine Fever situation in China is also reportedly bringing some optimism to the market, with the potential for an uplift in import demand.
“This is highly uncertain, however, and will depend on both the attitudes of Chinese consumers and the strategy of the Chinese government.”
UK prices
Conversely, UK prices have declined over the latest four-week period, falling €2.45 to €165.69/100kg.
The pound has very slightly weakened over the past four weeks, and therefore the decline is smaller in sterling terms; down 1.4p, with the figure averaging 148.19p/kg week ended August 19
“With the UK reference price and EU reference price diverging in trend, the gap between the two figures has narrowed significantly, to just over 14p in the latest week,” Oborne added.
“This is the smallest difference since March, and lower than the five-year average. This is perhaps positive news for UK producers, increasing the relative competitiveness of domestically-produced product.
“It remains to be seen, however, if this translates into any price support in the coming weeks.”
