A multi-agency report coordinated by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has concluded that science is showing we are “far off track” from achieving vital climate goals.
The report states that greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at record levels, fuelling temperature increase into the future, while the emissions gap between “aspiration and reality” remains high.
Under current policies, there is a two-thirds likelihood of global warming of 3° this century, according to the recently published United in Science report.
The report explores how advances in natural and social sciences, new technologies and innovation could be “game changers” for climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.
Commenting on the report, WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said: “We need urgent and ambitious action now to support sustainable development, climate action and disaster risk reduction.
“The decisions we make today could be the difference between a future breakdown or a breakthrough to a better world.”
The report states that the impacts of climate change and hazardous weather are reversing development gains and threatening the wellbeing of people and the planet.
“Artificial intelligence and machine learning have emerged as potentially transformative technologies that are revolutionising weather forecasting and can make it faster, cheaper and more accessible.
“Cutting-edge satellite technologies and virtual realities that bridge the physical and digital worlds are opening new frontiers in, for instance, land and water management,” Saulo said, but added that this is not enough to address climate change.
Climate report
Human-caused climate change has resulted in widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere, the report states.
The year 2023 was the warmest on record by a large margin, with widespread extreme weather. This trend continued in the first half of 2024, according to the report.
Global GHG emissions rose by 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, reaching 57.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent. Globally averaged surface concentrations of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide also reached new highs, the report states.
When the Paris Agreement was adopted, GHG emissions were projected to increase by 16% by 2030 relative to 2015. However, now, that projected increase is 3%, indicating that progress has been made, according to the report.
Yet the emissions gap for 2030 remains high. To limit global warming to below 2° and 1.5° above the pre-industrial era, global GHG emissions in 2030 must be cut by 28% and 42% respectively, from the levels projected from current policies, the report states.
With existing policies and national efforts to limit global warming to well below 2°, it is estimated that global warming will be kept to a maximum of 3° throughout the century, according to the report.
Only in the “most optimistic” scenario where all conditional national contributions and net-zero pledges are fully achieved is global warming projected to be limited to 2°, with just a 14% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°, authors said.
There is an 80% chance that the global mean near-surface temperature in at least one of the next five calendar years will exceed 1.5° above pre-industrial levels, and a 47% chance that the 2024-2028 five-year mean will exceed this threshold.
The legally binding Paris Agreement sets the target of limiting global warming to well below 2°, preferably to 1.5° compared to pre-industrial levels. The threshold of 1.5° refers to long-term warming averaged over 20 years, the report states.
New technologies and innovation
The recently published report highlights that “incredible advancements” in recent decades in space-based earth observations offer “vast opportunities” for the future.
High-resolution and high-frequency observations of the earth system are “crucial” for effective weather forecasting, climate prediction and environmental monitoring, the report states.
By leveraging public–private partnerships, innovations in space-based earth observations can be used to enhance weather, climate, water and related environmental applications, authors said.
However, big challenges limit the realisation of the full potential of space-based earth observations in support of global goals. Gaps remain in accurately measuring for example critical ocean and climate variables, the report states.
Immersive technologies such as digital twins – virtual representations designed to accurately reflect a physical object or system – can revolutionise integrated land and water management by offering interactive and data-driven solutions, authors said.
From simulating flood and drought events to predicting water flow and accumulation, as well as land degradation, immersive technologies enhance decision-making and the engagement of diverse actors, according to the report.
There are, however, challenges including limitations in data availability and quality. There is insufficient access to sustainable funding mechanisms, effective governance frameworks, and lack of public trust and understanding, the report states.
