Continuing dry weather in Russia, Ukraine and parts of the United States has signalled a strengthening of global wheat prices over recent days.
According to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), uncertainty over the size of the 2024/2025 Russian crop and slow planting of the 2025 crop, amid dry weather, have been factors in markets for a couple of weeks now.
The Russian government reportedly trimmed its estimate of the 2024 wheat crop from 84.0 – 86.0Mt to 83.0Mt over recent days.
Against this backdrop, and with strong exports so far, there are also rumours that Russia could introduce a higher minimum export price.
If measures are introduced, it would likely add to the nervous sentiment. Meanwhile, some rain is predicted in key producing regions of the country for the week ahead.
Dry weather also caused planting delays in Ukraine. However, there are reports that recent rain has helped, and that winter crop planting is advancing.
Drier than usual weather in the US winter wheat area is also starting to be monitored, with new crop planting now underway.
Meanwhile, in Argentina, the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange (BAGE) has reported that more rain is needed to sustain yields for the 2024/2025 wheat crop.
Global wheat prices
The Rosario Stock Exchange yesterday cut 1.0Mt from its crop forecast because of the dry weather, though its estimate is still above that from BAGE.
The lack of moisture is also delaying maize and sunflower planting.
In parts of Europe, wheat planting has also been delayed by wet weather, and late harvesting of 2024 spring crops, such as maize.
E.g., in France just 6% of the late-planted 2024 maize crop had been harvested by October 7. Normally, one would expect up to 40-% of the French maize crop to be harvested by the beginning of October.
However, planting progress has improved over the past week and the forecast for the week ahead is also looking drier.
French winter barley planting was 12% complete by October 7, up from 2% a week earlier but still behind the 16% planting expected for this time of year.
In Ireland, all of the 2024/2025 winter barley and rye crops have now been drilled. Tillage farmers are now pushing on with the planting of winter wheat crops.
One slight hold-up has been the delay in the harvesting of spring bean crops.
This reflects the late drilling dates for these drops earlier in the year. Wheat is the most effective crop to follow beans in an Irish tillage rotation.
