Pork production in China has continued to increase in 2026 driven by productivity gains and increased slaughtering, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

China is the largest pork producing country globally and produces nearly half of the global pork output. 

Senior analyst with AHDB, Soumya Behera said that increasing Chinese pork production in 2025 has rolled into the beginning of 2026.

She said: "According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s pork production in the first quarter of 2026 increased 4.2% year-on-year to 16.7 million metric tonnes.

Behera outlined that the Chinese government has been taking steps to reduce sow herds and maintain slaughter weights around 120kg to rebalance supply and demand in the market.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, China is likely to produce around 59.5 million metric tonnes pork in 2026, almost stable compared to 2025.

"The increase in slaughter volumes will be balanced by government’s policies to limit carcass weights, thereby stabilising pork output," Behera said.

"A new government directive in March aims at sow herd reduction to 36.5 million head, which stood at 39.6 million head at the end of 2025."

Prices

Chinese average pig prices have continued the decline in 2026, according to AHDB.

Behera said: "There was slight uplift in prices at the start of the year but declines thereafter.

"Ample supply in the domestic market amid weak demand is pressurising prices.

"However, with prices below breakeven, state and local governments initiated purchases for pork reserves to support prices. From April onwards, prices have been stable."

Seasonal demand remains weak after the Lunar New Year in February, however, some recovery is expected in the second half of 2026 as production will decline amid herd reduction measures.

Imports

In 2026, China’s imports of both pigmeat and offal have declined.

Behera said this is in contrast with the last few years' trend of declining volumes of pigmeat imports and increasing volumes of offal imports.

"The overall decline in imports denotes ample supply in the domestic market amid subdued demand," she said.

"Total pigmeat imports declined by 30% to 314,000 tonnes in 2026 (January-May) compared to the same period in the previous year."

The EU continues to be the largest exporter of pigmeat (excluding offal) to China, despite the anti-dumping duties (4.9% to 19.8%) imposed by China.

Spain has retained its position as the largest supplier.

Brazil and the UK hold the second and third position respectively.

The US continued to lose share following retaliatory tariffs on imports and Brazilian imports were costlier.

Focusing specifically on the offal category, the EU continues to dominate the Chinese import basket with a 52% market share followed by the US.

Year-on-year, shipment volumes of offal have increased from the UK to China driven by increased production.

British pork sector

According to Rabobank, Chinese imports will decline in the first half of 2026 amid ample domestic supply and then increase gradually in the second half as domestic supply tightens amid herd reduction measures.

AHDB's senior analyst Behera said that despite decline in total pigmeat and offal imports from China, the share of the UK has gone up in 2026.

"This denotes some positive sentiment for the British pork sector," she said.

"However, given the overall macroeconomic scenario, consumer spending is likely to remain subdued. 

"In addition to China, the industry should focus on opportunities developing in emerging markets in Southeast and East Asia and improve value from the entire carcass."