The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has indicated that international grain markets edged higher over recent days.
This trend has been supported by short-covering, concerns about global supplies and a potential slowdown in wheat exports from the Black Sea.
Dry weather in key winter wheat growing areas in Russia and Ukraine has slowed planting and given rise to fears that the 2025 crop areas could decline. Meanwhile, the impact of heavy rain in parts of the EU is being monitored.
There’s also potential for heavy rainfall in the US due to Hurricane Helene, which could slow maize harvesting and disrupt exports. The persistent dry weather in Brazil also poses a risk to the 2024/25 Safrinha maize area.
Meanwhile, the European Commission again pared back its estimates of the EU-27 2024 soft wheat (-1.5 Mt to 114.6 Mt), barley (-0.9 Mt to 50.4 Mt), and maize (-1.5 Mt to 60.1 Mt) crops.
This tightens the supplies compared to what was previously expected, though wheat and maize imports are still running at a faster pace than the EU forecasts for the season.
Generally, where wheat is concerned, more dry weather forecast for the Black Sea could offer support in the days ahead. Tight global wheat supplies continue to offer some support to prices longer-term.
International grain markets
The global outlook for maize remains one of sufficient supplies for now, though smaller EU crops and Brazilian weather cast some doubt.
In the case of barley, European supplies look tighter than previously forecast. But demand is key to price direction compared to other grains.
The Irish grain harvest is now complete. While yields are well down on average figures, there have been a number of good news stories for tillage farmers linked to Harvest 2024.
One of these is the high quality of spring barley crops. As a result, there has been a very low level of rejections, where malting crops are concerned.
The coming days will see a major push to get extensive acreages of both winter barley and wheat into the ground.
Ground conditions remain excellent across the country. This contrasts totally with the situation that confronted cereal growers 12 months ago: persistent rain and very wet fields.
Specifically, where winter barley is concerned, there is strong evidence to confirm that growers are opting for barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV)-tolerant varieties.
This reflects the strong impact of the disease on both winter and spring cereals in 2023/24.
