Improvements in weather patterns across the world’s most important grain producing regions is impacting on the tone of future markets at the present time.
The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has reported that considerable value was lost across the cereals complex following a forecast of more favourable weather in key growing regions.
In addition, Russian wheat is remaining extremely competitive on international markets.
According to the AHDB, 58% of the United States winter wheat crop was reported to be in drought condition, as of October 22.
However, the forecast of rains over key wheat-producing states has alleviated concerns regarding establishment, with 46% of the US winter crop now emerged.
Meanwhile, France’s soft winter-wheat planting campaign is 21% complete, as of October 21. This is behind the five-year average of 47% for the same time period.
Planting has been delayed due to incessant rainfall, which has also delayed the maize harvest.
Weather patterns
However, drier weather is forecast over France in the next two weeks, which is expected to improve harvest and planting progression.
In the US, the maize harvest is reported 65% complete, as of October 20, still exceeding the five-year average which was 52%.
In total contrast to recent seasons, autumn planting conditions in Ireland remain excellent.
Growers have confirmed that all 2024/2025 winter barley crops are now in the ground while winter wheat planting continues at a steady rate.
It is anticipated that the harvest of main crop potatoes and forage maize will be concluded over the coming days.
This will then allow cereal growers to get on with the completion of their 2024/25 winter wheat acreages.
Newly established cereal crops are looking well. Ground conditions remain excellent, thereby allowing growers to get on with weed and barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) control programmes.
Meanwhile, weather conditions are expected to remain benign well into next week.
According to Met Éireann the weather is signalled to be largely settled next week. High pressure to our east and northeast will dominate Ireland’s weather.
This will result in often dry conditions with rainfall amounts likely to be below average, though occasional outbreaks of rain are still possible.
Looking ahead high pressure will dominate Irish weather patterns during the second week of November as well.
Given these projected favourable conditions, there is a very strong likelihood that record winter cereal plantings will be achieved in Ireland, marking the start of the 2024/2025 growing season.
