The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is reporting that Canada’s wheat area is set to increase in 2025.
The wheat planting area is expected to reach 11.1 megahectares (Mha), up 2.6% from the previous year and 7.4% above the five-year average.
Meanwhile, Canada’s rapeseed area is projected to fall 1.7% to 8.76Mha in 2025, slightly below the five-year average.
As a leading exporter of wheat and the largest supplier of rapeseed, changes in Canada’s supply of these crops can have a significant impact on global market prices.
The rise in wheat area is mainly driven by spring wheat, expected to grow by 2.5% to 7.8Mha. Durum wheat is expected to remain steady at 2.6Mha, while winter wheat will see a notable increase of 15.1% to 682.8Kha.
Although rapeseed area is set to decline nationwide, Saskatchewan, Canada’s biggest producer, plans to increase its rapeseed area by 1.2% to 4.9Mha.
In its January outlook for principal crops, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) forecast all wheat production in 2025 to reach 35.03 megatonnes (Mt), up from 34.96Mt last year, driven by a larger area and average yield.
However, rapeseed production is expected to fall by 1.9% to 17.5Mt on reduced planted area.
The UK imports a significant amount of Canadian wheat each year, primarily due to its high protein content.
An increase in Canadian wheat production could help maintain a steady supply of high-protein wheat for flour mills. However, this rise in supply could also put pressure on both global and domestic wheat prices, potentially affecting the cost of imports.
For rapeseed, any drop in Canadian production could push global prices higher, offering some support to the UK rapeseed market. However, the outlook is mixed across key exporters.
While Canada and Ukraine are likely to see a decline, the EU and Australia are expected to increase production.
As the UK is expected to price at import parity for the new crop, this could create uncertainties in the market going forward.
Meanwhile, global cereals and oilseed markets are falling with concerns about US tariffs.
Higher tariff tensions increase trade risks, including for commodity prices, and growers will receive lower prices.
Weather risks are diminishing for winter wheat in the northern hemisphere and for maize in South America, which is also putting pressure on prices.
The delay in the start of the tariffs led to a rise in Chicago corn and wheat futures. The main reason for this rise was the acceleration in US export demand.
However, prices fell sharply as the date of the potential start of import tariffs approached. At the same time, domestic feed wheat and Paris futures moved sideways, but also fell with Chicago.
UK feed wheat also fell more than Chicago soyabean, Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg rapeseed.
Winnipeg rapeseed, like Chicago wheat and maize, increased in the middle of February but fell sharply as the date of the potential start of import tariffs approached.
Paris rapeseed followed Winnipeg in the recent downward movement.
