Australia’s cattle herd and sheep flock are expected to decline slightly in 2025, according to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).
The cattle herd is projected to fall by 1.4% to 30.1 million head in 2025 due to increased turn-off of older breeding cows and dry conditions in South Australia.
The MLA said the sheep flock will fall 7.4% to 73.2 million head due to the increased turn-off of older breeding ewes, and tough seasonal conditions across key sheep producing areas.
According to MLA managing director, Michael Crowley, the cattle and sheep industry projections show that the red meat industry is ready to respond to global demand in 2025.
“Record production and elevated slaughter rates are being met with strong demand from well-established relationships with customers throughout the global supply chain,” Crowley said.
Cattle
Australia produced more beef than ever in 2024, despite slaughter volumes being 7% below the previous record in 2014. This was due to higher carcass weights, primarily due to increased grainfed production.
Crowley said: “Producers are growing more efficient and productive cattle compared to 10 years ago. This is important considering the significant global demand for beef will continue this year, leading to another record production year.”
“Australia is currently in an opposite supply cycle to major beef-producing competitors such as the United States and Brazil. As the US begins its long-overdue herd rebuild and drought conditions in Brazil ease, global beef supply is expected to tighten.”
Crowley added that as record production continues into 2025, efficient logistics and supply chain management will become increasingly important.
Sheep
Older breeding ewes retained from the 2020–2022 rebuild will finally exit the system in 2025, contributing to the decline in the national flock.
Sheep slaughter is forecast to decline 17% to 9.8 million head in 2025, following the record rates of sheep turn-off at the conclusion of 2024.
Lamb slaughter is forecast to reach 26.2 million head, which is a slight 0.5% decline from 2024. However, this still represents the second-largest slaughter year on record behind 2024.
Despite the decline in the national sheep flock, lamb production continues to operate at historically high levels reaching 628,648t in 2025.
MLA said this is in part driven by genetic changes in the flock with a focus on improving weight gain, and yield in lamb carcases.
Crowley added: “In addition, Australia and New Zealand account for more than 80% of global sheep meat exports. However, the long-standing decline of the New Zealand sheep flock provides an opportunity for Australian sheepmeat exporters to continue their global dominance in 2025.”
