The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has published its second UK wheat supply and demand estimates for 2024/25.
In 2024/25, the total availability of wheat is estimated at 16.883 megatonnes (MT), up 95Kt from November, but down 1.486MT on the year, with a smaller crop outweighing a rise in opening stocks and imports.
Following the release of the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs’ (Defra) Cereals and Oilseed Rape Production Survey last December, wheat production is estimated at 11.146MT, 95Kt higher than November’s estimate, but 2.834MT down on the year.
Imports remain unchanged from November at 2.750MT, which is 313Kt higher than 2023/24 levels. From July to November, the UK imported 1.449MT of wheat, a record level for this period, with a large proportion being of milling quality.
It is expected that the pace of imports will slow during the latter part of the season, with reports of importers of high-quality milling wheat ‘front-loading’ stocks.
The majority of feed wheat imported into the UK is expected to be delivered into Northern Ireland, especially given the increase in the price of maize.
At 7.242MT, H&I wheat consumption is 86Kt lower from November and 257Kt down on the year. Wheat usage by the bioethanol industry is expected to decline further, driving the reduction from previous estimates and from 2023/24 levels.
Neither UK bioethanol plant is expected to be running at full capacity, partly due to competitively priced ethanol imports.
Furthermore, following the UK’s EU exit, the resolution of the status of domestic feed wheat under the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) remains ongoing.
RED II, along with its competitive pricing earlier in the season, has led to higher inclusions of maize in bioethanol production, compared with last season.
While flour production by UK millers is expected to marginally decline this season, extraction rates are expected to be slightly lower, leading to a slight rise in wheat usage by millers.
With a smaller domestic crop, the proportion of imported wheat in the grist remains higher. It is worth noting that reports suggest domestic supplies are functional, despite the lower protein levels.
In 2024/25, wheat used in animal feed is estimated at 6.464MT, relatively unchanged ( up 8Kt) from November, but 667Kt lower than 2023/24 levels.
Compared with November, a rise in fed on farm wheat usage is partially offset by a slower than initially anticipated rise in total cereal usage by compound feed manufacturers. With a smaller domestic wheat crop, the decline in wheat usage for animal feed from 2023/24 levels is driven largely by a fall in fed on farm.
The balance of total availability and domestic consumption in 2024/25 is 2.883MT, 173Kt higher than November due to the increase in the final production estimate and a slight drop in total usage.
However, compared with 2023/24, the balance is 549Kt lower, with the drop in availability larger than the drop in demand.
Full season exports are currently estimated at 175Kt, and considering the export pace to date (from July to November 2024) of 51.6Kt, this leaves just under 123.4Kt to be shipped from December to June.
The export pace is expected to remain slow but slightly pick up during the latter part of the season.
Commercial end-season stocks are estimated at 2.708Kt, 279Kt lower than 2023/24 levels but 592kt higher than the five-year average.
Taking into account an operating stock requirement of 1.550MT, and exports to date (from July to November), the UK has 1.282MT of wheat to either export between December and June or carry-over into the next season as free stock.
