UK sheep meat production is set to rise by 2% in 2025 to 272,000t, according to the latest analysis from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).
This increase is largely supported by a higher carryover of lambs from 2024, which will contribute to higher slaughter numbers in the first half of the year.
However, AHDB said that the lamb crop for 2025/2026 is predicted to fall by 2% compared to the previous year, bringing the total to 15.5 million head.
This decline is primarily driven by a reduction in the size of the female breeding flock, which has been shrinking steadily, and is forecast to reduce by 2.5% year-on-year.
AHDB senior analyst, Becky Smith, said: “The reduction in the breeding flock is a key concern for the long-term sustainability of the sheep meat sector.”
“While the carryover of 2024-born lambs will boost slaughter numbers in the short-term, the overall forecast for 2025 reflects ongoing challenges in maintaining flock sizes, which will impact lamb production in the years to come.”
Demand for sheep meat
Despite a slight reduction in the overall lamb crop, demand for UK lamb is expected to remain strong in some markets.
Exports are forecast to grow by 0.9% in 2025, primarily driven by continued demand from the EU, with France being the largest market for UK sheep meat.
However, imports are anticipated to fall by 13%, largely due to higher domestic supply, although they remain historically high.
In terms of domestic demand, retail and foodservice consumption of lamb is projected to decrease by 2% year-on-year following the high demand in 2024, according to the AHDB.
Smith added: “The economic climate will certainly play a role in shaping consumer demand for lamb in 2025.”
Production of lamb in the first half of 2025 is expected to be higher, thanks to the carryover of lambs, but clean sheep slaughter in the second half is predicted to remain steady.
This more typical slaughter pattern, coupled with the expectation of stable carcass weights, means total production for the year should see a modest increase.
As the sheep meat industry heads into 2025, AHDB has said that the ongoing challenges of a smaller breeding flock, potential disease risks, and the unpredictability of weather conditions could influence the sector’s stability.
