This week has seen the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) hosting its 2024 Grain Market Outlook (GMO) briefing.
The event centred on discussions around global markets and key policy drivers for the grain sector.
A number of key trends were identified, which may well impact on both cereal and oilseed markets into the future
While wheat supplies are expected to be tight this season, the picture for maize is looking more comfortable.
Overall, the global grain market is somewhat fragile, with a projected deficit, despite lacklustre global demand.
With a stronger reliance on Southern Hemisphere crops this season, production in these regions is a watch point.
Other areas to watch are the slowing of the Black Sea export pace and trade policies, which may change, following the results of the US election.
For global oilseeds, while rapeseed markets are supported by tight supplies and high palm oil prices, soya beans are acting as somewhat of an anchor with ample supplies (even more so now concerns are easing for South American crops).
AHDB
Despite entering the season with nearly 3 Mt of wheat, the drop in production this season is expected to outweigh the rise in carry-in stocks, strong imports and a reduction in consumption, to leave us with the tightest balance since 2020/2021.
In 2024/2025 the barley balance sheet is also expected to be tighter, driven by higher domestic consumption on the back of lower availability.
Looking further ahead, long-term trends show steady demand for flour milling and limited growth in animal feed.
If the current trends of a reduction in alcohol consumption continues, barley usage by brewers, maltsters, and distillers longer term could pull back. But as it stands, there is no major cause for concern.
For oilseed rape, the decline in UK rapeseed production is outweighing the decline in crush volume, increasing our domestic reliance on imports.
Current market trends
Meanwhile, global grain trends have been mixed over the past few days.
Where wheat is concerned, Forecasts of increased rainfall in the US plains and midwest could pressure prices in the short-term.
However, expectations of reduced Russian exports due to export restrictions and lower production this year could support prices in the long term.
In the case of maize, strong US export demand is balanced by harvest pressure from the US and France, along with comfortable global supply forecasts.
In contrast, slow winter barley planting progress in the European Union is a longer-term concern. However, results from the Australian harvest, which is now underway, are being closely awaited with a range in forecasts.
