The Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) has released Northern Ireland’s greenhouse gas (GHG) projection statistics, which has revealed agriculture as the largest source of emissions for Northern Ireland in 2020.
Agriculture was responsible for 28% of Northern Ireland’s emissions in 2020, with the department explaining that this share is expected to increase to 32% by 2031 as “other sectors reduce emissions at a faster rate”.
The agricultural sector saw its emissions increase by 7% between the base year of 1990 and 2020 and, based from the projections released today (Thursday, February 9), is expected to see a decrease of only 1% between 2020 and 2031.
This would mean agriculture having an overall projected increase in emissions of 6% between 1990 and 2031.
This sector, DAERA said, is centred on agricultural projections based on the 1990 and 2020 GHG inventory and agricultural forecasts from the FAPRI-UK 2021 – a system of equations analysing supply and demand in agricultural sectors.
Across the projected time series emissions from manure management and urea decrease by the same amount. The department said there are Northern Ireland-specific savings from the Nitrate Action Plan and Manure Efficiency Technology Scheme which have remained the same as previous years.
GHG projection
The GHG projection statistics revealed that the 21 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) estimated in the Northern Ireland Greenhouse Gas Inventory is a 24% decrease on the 28 MtCO2e emitted in 1990.
The latest projection, DAERA said, is that GHG emissions in Northern Ireland will reduce by 34% between 1990 and 2031 to 18 MtCO2e.
The statistical report is updated annually and details Northern Ireland’s GHG projections. It projects emissions of GHGs in Northern Ireland from 2021 to 2031 and considers the reduction in emissions from 1990 to 2031.
The GHG inventory provides projections data for energy, agriculture, population, electricity demand, gas and land use.
The Northern Ireland GHG projection tool considers the time series of GHG emissions from the latest available GHG inventory and projects emissions onward to 2031.
The associated sensitivity analysis papers supplements the projections by considering the effects that economic and policy impacts, and potential data improvements, may have on the projected emissions.
