Rural land and property specialist GSC Grays has said the number of farmer buyers for farmland in 2023 has dropped by nearly 10%.
Head of land and farm sales at GSC Grays, John Coleman, said the market for farmland this year has seen a drop in farmer buyers, but other types of buyers are becoming “increasingly active”.
As a result, the market overall shows demand continuing to outweigh supply, Coleman said.
“In the buyer market in any one year we would expect the number of active farmer buyers to be at or just over 50% but in 2023 this is falling closer to 40%, ” Coleman said.
“The lack of farmer buyers has been compensated by private investors, lifestyle buyers, institutional investors, and environmental buyers.”
Coleman said institutional investors and environmental buyers prefer larger farms or land holdings, as their need for “green credentials” is hard to fill.
“ESG investment funds have been hugely influential recently and capital funding for environmental groups has made them very competitive with the need for Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) and in Nutrient Neutrality (NN) where the better the land taken out of agricultural production the greater the reward and benefit to the environment,” he said.
“How long these conditions can continue is open to debate, as the government are threatening the removal of Nutrient Neutrality (NN) to assist housebuilders.”
“The lifestyle buyer and private investor face change as their competitive advantage over farmers comes from capital tax reliefs through Agricultural & Business Property Relief (APR and BPR) which a new government may affect.”
Misconceptions
Coleman said there is a perception that the supply of farmland has seen a significant increase, but that analysis of the market, particularly across the North of England, suggests otherwise.
“Various reports say anywhere from 33,000 to 62,000ac of openly marketed land was on offer by the end of June 2023 – a little down on 2022 and at least 10% below the 10 year average,” he said.
“For land parcels and farms greater than 50ac, the amount of land offered for sale in the north is around 5% up on last year and similar to the 10-year average.
“Northumberland is offering more farms for sale than it has done for the last 12 years. However, North Yorkshire and County Durham have remained relatively quiet, down over 6% this year, while Cumbria is even quieter. “
Despite the impact of interest rate rises, which have slowed the general rate of growth, Coleman said premium prices are being offered in the market with an increase in available land expected at the end of this year and heading into 2024.
“Prime arable land has traded in the north between £10,000 and £13,000/ac, whilst grassland prices have settled at between £8,000 and £9,000/ac” he said.
“Marginal land and upland grazing have benefitted again by competition from the forestry sector with land capable of supporting commercial plantations trading between £4,500 and £6,000/ac.
“Expectations are that there will be more land available in the second half of the year and going forward into 2024.”
However, Coleman said buyers are likely to face increased funding costs and the possibility of a change of government in 2024 may cause them to offer less or postpone any decisions.
