The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board has confirmed that wheat prices are being supported in the market at the present time, however, this may be only a short-term trend.
Concerns over production in the European Union (EU), coupled with production cuts in Russia and escalating tensions in the Black Sea region, could support prices in the short-term.
However, higher stock levels and improved production in Australia and Ukraine could help steady prices long-term.
Global demand for wheat continues to strengthen, with more exports and international tenders last week. The Jordan state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120Kt wheat.
While Egypt’s state grains buyer, GASC purchased 430Kt of Russian wheat for October delivery. The USDA reported export sales of wheat for the 2024-25 marketing year at 475Kt, close to the upper-end of a range of analyst estimates.
Wheat prices
Meanwhile, cuts to global maize production and stock levels could keep the market supported in the short-term.
Robust production in the US and sluggish global demand will also balance the market longer-term.
Where barley is concerned, reduced crop estimates in the EU and Canada are being counterbalanced by higher production estimates in Australia.
Barley will, however, continue to follow trends of the broader cereals market.
Where plant proteins are concerned, developments regarding China’s anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed will continue to influence rapeseed markets.
However, the fundamentally tight global balance largely due to lower EU production offers support.
Dryness in key soybean growing areas is forecast to continue in the short-term and US soybean sales uphold recently strong pace. However, the record US soybean crop estimate continues to support global supply.
Recent days have seen US soybeans scored as 65% in good or excellent condition – that’s two percentage points higher than the average analyst estimate.
Analysts had anticipated some deterioration in quality due to the on-going dryness over the US midwest which had pushed the proportion of the US soybean area in drought up seven percentage points on the week to 26%.
Meanwhile, reports are indicating that soil moisture in two key soybean growing states in Brazil (Mato Grosso and Parana) has dropped to its lowest level in 30 years.
The persisting dryness is expected to continue next week, with some forecasts suggesting that more favourable weather is due towards the end of September in key growing regions.
Delayed planning days have a direct impact on Brazilian soybean yields.
