Projected harvest yields at European level have been revised downwards for almost all combinable crops with weather extremes cited as the key factor in all instances.
The latest harvest projections are contained in the August edition of the EU Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS (MARS) bulletin.
Overall, the outlook for total cereals remains poor as the yield is estimated at 5.36t/a, that is 0.12t/ha below the five-year average.
The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is confirming that the European Commission has reduced yield estimates for soft wheat, barley (winter and spring), and maize.
Weather impact
As has been explained in previous MARS reports, the downward revision to winter crops has been largely attributed to excessively wet conditions across western and northern Europe, in addition to dry weather in eastern Europe.
Unfavourable weather conditions have continued during the summer where the Baltic countries experienced considerable rainfall which has led to lodging and impacting on grain quality.Furthermore, in the north-west of mainland Europe, rainfall has persisted and interrupted harvesting, leading to further pressure on crop conditions.
The downward revision to maize has come as a result of hot temperatures and limited water availability during July to mid-August in southern and eastern Europe.
Recently, the EU has been importing more cereals in response to poorer production seen in numerous EU member states.
In comparison to the three-year average, imports of feed wheat, barley, and maize are all greater in 2024/2025.
Over the past two months, wheat imports to the EU reached 955Kt. While this is slightly lower than the pace set last year (1022Kt), this it still markedly above the three-year average of 608Kt.
UK harvest
Meanwhile, the Department of Food, Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra) has just released its provisional estimates for the cereals and oilseed rape (OSR) areas in England on June 1, 2024.
Coming at 2.65 million hectares, it is the lowest recorded figure since at least 1983. The extremely difficult planting conditions, as a result of record rainfall, played a considerable role.
The areas for wheat, winter barley and oilseed rape are estimated down by 11%, 17% and 27% respectively.
These falls are only partly offset by the areas of spring barley and oats, which are estimated to increase on the year by 28% and 11% respectively.
These figures tie in closely with the results of AHDB’s own planting survey for 2023/2024. With a notably lower OSR area this year, the UK’s dependence on rape imports is likely to continue into the 2024/2025 marketing year.
