The very wet conditions that have impacted across many countries this summer have combined to deliver the smallest feed wheat crop since 2018 across the European Union (EU).
Back then, the culprit was also the weather and drought conditions, as opposed to heavy rains.
The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has confirmed that across the EU-27, feed wheat production is now pegged at just 116.50Mt.
The initial projection was compiled by the France-based organisation, Strategie Grains.
This is 5.8Mt lower than the company’s previous projection and would be the smallest crop since the 2018 wheat crop of 114.8Mt. Grain quality issues have also been highlighted.
Feed wheat crop
Last Friday saw the French government cut its estimate of the country’s feed wheat crop by 3.3Mt to 26.3Mt. This is down 25% from 2023 and is the smallest crop since 1987.
Better weather over the past week has helped the French wheat harvest, but progress is still eight days behind average.
Rain has also delayed Germany’s harvest, with anecdotal reports of lower yields and protein contents but also notable regional variation.
The German Statistics Office put its first estimate of the 2024 wheat crop at 19.7 Mt, down from 21.5 Mt in 2023 and the lowest since 2003.
At 50.6Mt, Strategie Grains’ latest estimate for the EU-27 barley crop is still above 2023’s very small crop. But, it is now below the five-year average.
EU maize production in 2024 is set to total 60Mt and is below last year’s crop output figure. This is despite a larger area, and is due to the heatwaves in Eastern Europe.
Meanwhile, a positive maize outlook in the United States (US) is limiting gains in international feed grain prices, and more downward market pressure could follow.
The US national weather service has confirmed that average temperatures across the ‘Corn Belt’ were below the long-term average.
This is typically associated with US yields being close to, or above, their long-term trend.
In addition, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expected to increase its yield forecast over the coming days. This will come courtesy of an upcoming World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate.
While the Irish wheat harvest has yet to get underway, winter barley yields in 2024 have been disappointing. This reflects the very poor conditions at time of sowing last year.
In contrast, many Irish wheat crops are looking well at the present time. However, the weather at harvest will be a significant determinant of final yields and grain quality.
