Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has estimated that the production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape may be down by 4 million tonnes this year compared to 2023.
This is a production reduction of 17.5% and, compared to the 2015-2023 average, the decline would be over 5 million tonnes – or 21.2%.
The ECIU said these projected impacts on the UK harvest are a result of this year’s “unprecedented wet weather”.
Commenting on the analysis, ECIU land analyst Tom Lancaster said: “This washout winter is playing havoc with farmers’ fields leading to soils so waterlogged they cannot be planted or too wet for tractors to apply fertilisers.
“This is likely to mean not only a financial hit for farmers, but higher imports as we look to plug the gap left by a shortfall in UK supply.
“There’s also a real risk that the price of bread, beer and biscuits could increase as the poor harvest may lead to higher costs.”
To withstand the wetter winters that will come from climate change, farmers need more support, Lancaster said.
“The governments green farming schemes are vital to this, helping farmers to invest in their soils to allow them to recover faster from both floods and droughts.”
Wheat harvest
The ECIU said the impact of the wet winter is a particular concern for the UK’s wheat harvest. It estimates that the wheat production could be down by up to 26.5% compared to 2023.
Milling wheat used to make bread could be hit particularly hard, as it needs to meet higher quality requirements that will be more difficult for farmers to achieve with the wet weather, the ECIU said.
UK Flour Millers said last week that an estimate of breadmaking wheat production for 2024 based off the forecasted area and yields from previous years indicate the upcoming harvest could be the smallest in over ten years and down almost 40% on 2023.
On the wet winter, Lincolnshire arable farmer and Nature Friendly Farming Network (NFFN) member Colin Chappell, said it has had a “massive impact” on farmers.
“We went through the winter with virtually nothing viable drilled, and while it’s now dry enough to plant some fields some of them are so bad I don’t think they’ll get drilled this year,” he said.
“The situation is very hit and miss. Looking ahead, the new Sustainable Farming Incentive is how my farm is going to survive over the next few years.
“The climate is making farming on heavy clay soils like mine very difficult and quite demoralising.”
With the wet weather continuing to hamper planting of spring crops like barley, the historically high malting barley premium may hold, leading to higher costs for brewers and distillers and raising the prospect of the wet winter increasing the price of a pint, ECIU said.
Lancaster of ECIU said: “Farmers are saying this is the worst winter they’ve ever experienced. Coming just as food prices were coming down after the gas price crisis, the public will now rightly fear what this means for the cost of their weekly shop.
“Given half our food comes from abroad, the UK will have to ensure farmers are supported here in the UK, but also in countries that grow the fruit and other staples we can’t, that are also being battered by weather extremes.
“With climate impacts only increasing as the world warms, we need to view this winter as a harbinger of things to come.
“Moving faster to net zero emissions is the only guaranteed way to limit these impacts and maintain our food security.”
