The Met Office has today (Tuesday, December 20) said that the global temperature forecast for 2023 suggests that it will be one of the Earth’s hottest years on record.
The UK’s national weather service said that the average global temperature for 2023 is forecast to be between 1.08° and 1.32° above the pre-industrial period, which is between the years of 1850 and 1900.
This means that 2023 will be the tenth year in succession that temperatures have reached at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels.
Nick Dunstone from the Met Office, who has led the 2023 global temperature forecast, said:
“The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Nina – where cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific.
“La Nina has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature. For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Nina state with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.
“This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”
2023 set to be a ‘notable year’
Head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, Adam Scaife, said that 2016 has been the warmest year so far in the observational record, which began in 1850.
“2016 was an El Nino year where the global temperature was boosted by warmer waters in parts of the tropical Pacific,” he said.
“Without a preceding El Nino to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series.”
Doug Smith, an expert in climate prediction, added: “The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1.0° for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation across the world.
“Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”
