The world food import bill is predicted to reach $1.94 trillion by the end of 2022, marking a new, record high, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).
The organisation’s Food Outlook report outlines that this increase is mostly due to higher food prices around the world, with volumes of this food also expected to rise in coming years.
It also estimates that these rising food prices combined with depreciating currencies will eventually slow down the rise in the cost of the world food import bill. However, while the upward trend continues, it is the economically vulnerable country groups are most affected.
According to the report, while the food import bill for groups of low-income countries is expected to remain largely unchanged, the volume of food is predicted to shrink by about 10%. This points to a growing issue around food accessibility in these nations.
“These are alarming signs from a food security perspective, indicating importers are finding it difficult to finance rising international costs, potentially heralding an end of their resilience to higher international prices,” the report from FAO’s Markets and Trade Division warned.
Product breakdowns
The Food Outlook report breaks down trade patterns by food groups including cereals, sugar, meat, dairy and fish.
It warns that existing trends will become more pronounced including a pattern among high-income countries to import across all groups, while low-income countries focus on the importation of staple foods.
The report’s forecasts estimate that world wheat production will reach 784 million tonnes in 2022/23 resulting in record levels of inventories.
In contrast, coarse grain production is expected to drop to 1.4 billion tonnes with inventories forecast to fall to their lowest levels since 2013. This is the only food group predicted to weaken, as the report estimates increases in world output of meat, dairy and fish.
The report looks at trade trends in relation to some other commodities as well, including fertiliser. The global input import bill is expected to rise to $424 billion by the end of 2022, an increase of 48% on last year, and 112% on 2020.
The report adds that higher costs for imported energy and fertiliser are behind the foreseen increase. It states that as both of these are particularly relevant to import bills, the soaring prices will pose strain on low and middle-income countries, which could result in reduced application of inputs.
According to the FAO, “this will almost inevitably result in lower agricultural productivity and lower domestic food availability”.
“Negative repercussions for global agricultural output and food security” are likely to extend into 2023, the organisation concluded.
