The agriculture sector in Northern Ireland is projected to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 3% in the 11 years between 2019 and 2030.
These projections for the agriculture sector, published by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) today (Thursday, March 3), are based on information provided by the Agri-Food and Bioscience Institute (AFBI) for the UK.
For comparison, in the 29 years between 1990 and 2019, the agriculture sector increased emissions by 8%. Taking this into account this gives an overall increase in emissions, between 1990 and 2030, of 4%.
In 2019, agriculture was the largest source of emissions for Northern Ireland at 26%. This share is expected to increase to 31% in 2030 as other sectors reduce emissions at a faster rate.
From 1990 to 2030, sectors that will make large reductions in emissions include the energy supply (74% reduction); waste management (71% reduction); industrial process (70% reduction); and public sectors (69% reduction).
And while at 31% in 2030 agriculture will remain the sector with the largest share of emissions, it won't be the sector that saw the biggest increase; between 1990 and 2030 the land use change (including forestry) sector will have increased its contributory share of GHG emissions to 17%, an increase on its 2019 figure which was 12%.
The other sector that will see an increase, of 2%, between 1990 and 2030 is the transport sector.
With that said, it is projected that there will be on overall decrease of 32% in Northern Ireland's total GHG emissions between 1990 and 2030.
In terms of tangible figures, the Northern Ireland GHG estimate in 1990 was 26 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). The expected emissions in 2030 is 18 million tonnes of CO2e.
Pinch of salt
The projections are indeed just that; projections. Meaning, 100% statistical certainty cannot be guaranteed.
On top of that, with a Climate Change Bill currently in the works for Northern Ireland, and a UK-wide aim for net zero, the next few years are ambiguous.
Just this week an amendment was made to the Climate Change Bill to ensure that the level of reductions in methane emissions will not be required to be more that 46% lower than the baseline year of 1990.
Minister Edwin Poots, who put forward the amendment, after its acceptance said:
"[The acceptance of this amendment]makes it clear that we in the Assembly are not expecting the agriculture sector to close down as part of the net zero ambition, which was voted through at Consideration Stage, to which I have made my opposition to quite clear.
“Instead it will get the buy-in we need from our agriculture sector by clarifying they are to make a realistic, albeit very challenging, contribution to tackling climate change so we can protect our environment in a sustainable way, whilst ensuring we have a thriving agriculture sector.”
